Spoiler: Oppenheimer folks are going to be super happy.
I’ve seen 90% of all nominated candidates. Shorts are hard to see, I only saw a couple of those, but I’ve seen just about everything else which is a damn sight better than most Acadamy voters.
Feel free to compare notes or text me during the show including the red carpet. if you want to gossip about any of this. I find this all so much fun.
For the record, this evening tonight I am wearing a semi clean hoodie by Roots Canada, and some ready for the trash sweatpants. Take that Ryan Gosling.
Best Picture
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
This one is a mortal lock, has been all along. The kind of movie Oscar loves, big historical biopic with great cinematography and acting.
Best Picture is where the weirdness happens, it’s the only category with a ranked ballot so its hard to be 100% sure….but I’m 100% sure
My Vote:
- Oppenheimer
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
Best Director
- Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
- Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest
Will Win: Nolan
Should Win: Nolan
And it’s about time too.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Bradley Cooper — Maestro
- Colman Domingo — Rustin
- Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Will Win: Murphy
Should Win: Murphy
Don’t be surprised if an upset involving Globe’s winner Giamatti turns everything upside down, but with SAG & BAFTA already in for Murphy, it’s not likely.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Annette Bening — Nyad
- Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan — Maestro
- Emma Stone — Poor Things
Will Win: Gladstone
Should Win: Gladstone
Emma got all the precursors and Oscar loves her. It’s the tightest race of the night, but Gladstone is the only real strong nominee for a movie that could end up empty handed. Sometimes that can tip the scale. Both movies are long and voters tend to bail after a couple hours, so the favorite usually prevails. Gladstone had the stronger campaign. If they had this ceremony in January, Gladstone would have won going away. I’m calling this Lily by a nose but I think It’s real close here.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Sterling K. Brown — American Fiction
- Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling — Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
Will Win: Downey
Should Win: Downey
Another lock and has been for a while.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
- America Ferrera — Barbie
- Jodie Foster — Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
Will Win: Randolph
Should Win: Randolph
Don’t be surprised if America Ferrera pulls an upset.
The heart and soul of a terrific movie that unfortunately won’t get the attention it deserves tonight. A small indie in a season of so many BIG movies, it’s the little engine that could, which is why Da”Vine, already with a closet full of hardware will get the biggest trophy tonight.
However, consider America Ferrera in Barbie, a film that will unfortunately not get the rewards it deserves tonight, Ferrera is the heart and soul of THAT movie, and her monolog should be repeated for decades to come. I’m not saying the upset is brewing, it’s most definitely not on my radar, but this is the category that traditionally delivers an upset.
Best Original Screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
- The Holdovers — David Hemingson
- Past Lives
- Maestro — Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
- May December — Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
My favorite movie of the year was “Past Lives” and maybe tied with that was “The Holdovers” but Anatomy was so masterly crafted as a domestic drama + who done it + courtroom drama all in one, it’s very hard to pick against it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- American Fiction — Cord Jefferson
- Barbie — Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
- Oppenheimer — Christopher Nolan
- Poor Things — Tony McNamara
- The Zone of Interest — Jonathan Glazer
Will Win: American Fiction
Should Win: American Fiction
I sought out and read all five of these and American Fiction is the one screenplay that made me wish I could write like that. A under-considered film all around. Don’t be surprised if this gets swept into the Oppenheimer wave though.
Best Costume Design
- Barbie — Jacqueline Durran
- Killers of the Flower Moon — Jacqueline West
- Napoleon — Janty Yates and David Crossman
- Oppenheimer — Ellen Mirojnick
- Poor Things — Holly Waddington
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Golda — Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue
- Maestro — Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell
- Oppenheimer — Luisa Abel
- Poor Things — Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston
- Society of the Snow — Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé
Will Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Poor Things
Best Cinematography
- El Conde
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Come on, have you seen this thing?
Best Visual Effects
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Napoleon
Will Win: Godzilla
Should Win: Godzilla
Best Sound
- The Creator
- Maestro
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Best Film Editing
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Best Production Design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Poor Things
Best Original Score
- American Fiction — Laura Karpman
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny — John Williams
- Killers of the Flower Moon — Robbie Robertson
- Oppenheimer — Ludwig Göransson
- Poor Things — Jerskin Fendrix
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Would love to see the late Robbie Robertson get this for a fantastic score for a movie that was just crowded out in such a strong year.
Best Original Song
- “The Fire Inside” — Flamin’ Hot
- “I’m Just Ken” — Barbie
- “It Never Went Away” — American Symphony
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” — Killers of the Flower Moon
- “What Was I Made For?” — Barbie
Will Win: What Was I Made For.
This is a lock.
Best Animated Feature Film
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Don’t be surprised if: The Boy and the Heron comes back. There was a lot of buzz about the film for a long time, I think Spiderman is the better movie but I can see this going the other way too.
Best International Feature Film
- Io Capitano
- Perfect Days
- Society of the Snow
- The Teachers’ Lounge
- The Zone of Interest
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Best Animated Short Film
- Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Our Uniform
- Pachyderme
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Will Win: War is over!
Honestly most voters don’t watch the shorts, they’ll see John & Yoko and just mark the ballot. I’m on board, fine.
Best Live Action Short Film
- The After
- Invincible
- Knight of Fortune
- Red, White and Blue
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Should Win: Red, White and Blue
Red, White and Blue, a moving and emotional story about a waitress who has to cross state lines to access abortion services is the kind of film that speaks to the current moment like few other. It should win on that alone, however so many voters just don’t see the shorts and have either their assistants vote, or pick friends of theirs, or names the know. Wes Anderson could either benefit by that or get blowback for doing a short as opposed to a feature.
Best Documentary Feature Film
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- To Kill a Tiger
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Documentary Short Film
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Island in Between
- The Last Repair Shop
- Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Should Win: The ABCs of Book Banning